Thursday, November 03, 2016

Looking back part and forward part II



I do have 964 SNGs in my database. Most of them are 18 seaters, but also 36, 40, 45 and 180 seaters all at different buy-ins.
My total results are:
SNGs played: 964
Total buy-in: $2269.95
Total Pay-out: $2309.89
Profit: $39.94
ITM%: 23.96%
Profit per SNG: $0.04

Seats
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
Profit per game
18
844
$-87.82
25%
$-0.1
36
1
$-2.2
0%
$-2.2
40
2
$-2.2
0%
$-1.1
45
52
$38.16
25%
$0.73
180
65
$94
10.77%
$1.45

Based on this table I should be focusing on the 45 and 180 seater. The profit @ the 180 seater, almost completely comes from winning one with a buy-in of $2.2. Good for a pay-out of $108. So it is strange to see that I did choose the 18 seater. The reason behind this is unknown to me. Maybe I should try to include some 45 or 180 seaters in the SNG I intend to play before the end of the year? But I do firmly believe

In the rest of this post I will just ignore the 36 and 40 seaters.

Lets analyze first the 18 seater, my favorite playground.

Buy-in
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
FT%
Profit per game
$1.2
1
$-1.2
0%
0%
$-1.2
$1.5
358
$-59.55
16.67%
33.33%
$-0.17
$1.75
277
$60.65
27.8%
53.79%
$0.22
$3.4
134
$-50.6
23.88%
53.73%
$-0.38
$3.5
6
$-15.32
16.67%
50%
$-2.55
$6.5
66
$-7.8
22.73%
40.91%
$-0.12
$7
2
$-14
0%
0%
$-7

The $1.5 and $1.75 should be analyzed combined, just as the $3.4 and $3.5. Cause these are more or less the same SNGs, but changed in buy-in level after the changes in Pokerstars.
I should avoid the higher buy-in levels, these are costing me money meaning that I’m not ready for these levels. In this prospect it is good that I did choose the $1.5 as my habitat.
The SNG above $1.75 are good for a combined loss of around $87. So all my loss at the 18 seaters can be related to these levels.

If we look at the 45 seaters, we have the following table:

Buy-in
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
Profit per game
$0.25
14
$-2,52
14.29%
$-0.18
$0.5
8
$11.38
50%
$1.42
$1.1
2
$2.8
50%
$1.4
$3.25
6
$-4.5
33.33%
$-0.75
$6..5
22
$31
18.18%
$1.41

The only buy-in which can reflect a little bit my level of play on the 45 seater is that $6.5 buy-in. And even this sample size is way to low to base conclusions on.
Still we have a combined profit of $38.16. At the $6.5 buy-in, I did have 4 cashes, but they represent a second place, 2 third places and a fourth place.

The sample size on the 180 seaters is also to low to analyze, but for completeness here it is:
Buy-in
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
Profit per game
$1
1
$-1
0%
$-1
$2.2
53
$70.6
5.66%
$1.33
$2.5
8
$-20
0%
$-2.5
$4.4
3
$44.4
33.33%
$14.8

Only the $2.2 can give me some insight. Sample size here is above 50, which could give some direction. Compared with the 45 and surely the 18 seater, the ITM% is of course much lower.
Most part of the profit is based on one 1. Without this win I would had to write red figures.

So where does this bring me?
I do know the following facts:
-          I should avoid playing on Monday or Saturday. Both are loosing days.
-          Most games are played in October and November. Days are getting shorter, so much time available to play poker.
-          I’m a winning player. Not by much, but a fact is a fact.
-          I’m not ready for higher buy-ins.
-          I should not only focus on the 18 seaters.

The plan of attack:
Like said before I do plan to play 100 18 seaters before the end of the year. Hoping to make a profit.
But based on the stats I should not neglect the 45 or 180 seater. Based on the difference in duration between these 2, I will add some 45 seaters to my game plan.
When I do start a season I will fire up 2 18 seaters and 1 45 seater. Still have to look at the buy-in level available these days. If still available I will go for the $1.1.
This choice is based on the current bankroll I have. I do aim to play 25 of these day before the end of year.

Good luck,
Dremeber

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