Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Status update

To be honest, it is not going according to plan.
So far, I have played 31 18 seater's and writing red figures. I'm down $1.35. Momentary, I'm running a loosing streak of 8 games. Only 6 times ITM, the good thing is that these are 2 wins and 3 third places.
Strangely I don't have the idea that I'm playing badly, when I'm pushing I'm always the favourite but rarely winning these pushes. When I'm racing I'm always loosing. I can remeber a faulty push where I did ran into a better flush, should have played this hand more conservative.

I'm disappointed however over the final tables I'm reaching. Not even 50%. Work ahead.
So the plan was to get 27 cashes in 100 games. Which is till possible, 69 games left.

But I did add the 45 seater's to my game plan. Each time when I do fire up 2 18 seaters, I also start a 45 seater. Already played 8 of them, 2 cashes, good for a profit of $3,29. So for the moment it was a good choice to add these to the gaming plan.


  Actual Target Completed Left  
Played 31 100 31% 69  
Wins 2 7 28,57% 5 7,25%
Second 3 7 42,86% 4 5,80%
Third 1 7 14,29% 6 8,70%
4th 0 7 0,00% 7 10,14%
Pay-out 45,15 150 30,10% 104,85 1,52

I really need to improve in result, otherwise the challenge will quickly become a mission impossible.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Looking back part and forward part II



I do have 964 SNGs in my database. Most of them are 18 seaters, but also 36, 40, 45 and 180 seaters all at different buy-ins.
My total results are:
SNGs played: 964
Total buy-in: $2269.95
Total Pay-out: $2309.89
Profit: $39.94
ITM%: 23.96%
Profit per SNG: $0.04

Seats
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
Profit per game
18
844
$-87.82
25%
$-0.1
36
1
$-2.2
0%
$-2.2
40
2
$-2.2
0%
$-1.1
45
52
$38.16
25%
$0.73
180
65
$94
10.77%
$1.45

Based on this table I should be focusing on the 45 and 180 seater. The profit @ the 180 seater, almost completely comes from winning one with a buy-in of $2.2. Good for a pay-out of $108. So it is strange to see that I did choose the 18 seater. The reason behind this is unknown to me. Maybe I should try to include some 45 or 180 seaters in the SNG I intend to play before the end of the year? But I do firmly believe

In the rest of this post I will just ignore the 36 and 40 seaters.

Lets analyze first the 18 seater, my favorite playground.

Buy-in
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
FT%
Profit per game
$1.2
1
$-1.2
0%
0%
$-1.2
$1.5
358
$-59.55
16.67%
33.33%
$-0.17
$1.75
277
$60.65
27.8%
53.79%
$0.22
$3.4
134
$-50.6
23.88%
53.73%
$-0.38
$3.5
6
$-15.32
16.67%
50%
$-2.55
$6.5
66
$-7.8
22.73%
40.91%
$-0.12
$7
2
$-14
0%
0%
$-7

The $1.5 and $1.75 should be analyzed combined, just as the $3.4 and $3.5. Cause these are more or less the same SNGs, but changed in buy-in level after the changes in Pokerstars.
I should avoid the higher buy-in levels, these are costing me money meaning that I’m not ready for these levels. In this prospect it is good that I did choose the $1.5 as my habitat.
The SNG above $1.75 are good for a combined loss of around $87. So all my loss at the 18 seaters can be related to these levels.

If we look at the 45 seaters, we have the following table:

Buy-in
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
Profit per game
$0.25
14
$-2,52
14.29%
$-0.18
$0.5
8
$11.38
50%
$1.42
$1.1
2
$2.8
50%
$1.4
$3.25
6
$-4.5
33.33%
$-0.75
$6..5
22
$31
18.18%
$1.41

The only buy-in which can reflect a little bit my level of play on the 45 seater is that $6.5 buy-in. And even this sample size is way to low to base conclusions on.
Still we have a combined profit of $38.16. At the $6.5 buy-in, I did have 4 cashes, but they represent a second place, 2 third places and a fourth place.

The sample size on the 180 seaters is also to low to analyze, but for completeness here it is:
Buy-in
Number
Profit/Loss
ITM%
Profit per game
$1
1
$-1
0%
$-1
$2.2
53
$70.6
5.66%
$1.33
$2.5
8
$-20
0%
$-2.5
$4.4
3
$44.4
33.33%
$14.8

Only the $2.2 can give me some insight. Sample size here is above 50, which could give some direction. Compared with the 45 and surely the 18 seater, the ITM% is of course much lower.
Most part of the profit is based on one 1. Without this win I would had to write red figures.

So where does this bring me?
I do know the following facts:
-          I should avoid playing on Monday or Saturday. Both are loosing days.
-          Most games are played in October and November. Days are getting shorter, so much time available to play poker.
-          I’m a winning player. Not by much, but a fact is a fact.
-          I’m not ready for higher buy-ins.
-          I should not only focus on the 18 seaters.

The plan of attack:
Like said before I do plan to play 100 18 seaters before the end of the year. Hoping to make a profit.
But based on the stats I should not neglect the 45 or 180 seater. Based on the difference in duration between these 2, I will add some 45 seaters to my game plan.
When I do start a season I will fire up 2 18 seaters and 1 45 seater. Still have to look at the buy-in level available these days. If still available I will go for the $1.1.
This choice is based on the current bankroll I have. I do aim to play 25 of these day before the end of year.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Looking back, looking forward



We are back at the online poker tables.
First my idea was just to have some fun, but this is a hard thing for me. I did made a plan to play 100 $1.5 18 SNG turbos at PokerStars. Thinking that I’m an above average player it should be easy to make a little profit from this set of 100. But this was before I decided to extract some statistics from the past. These stats did demolish my faith but also my plan.

So what do these stats say?

Looking back:
The most important thing is that I’m a loosing player on these type of SNGs.
I have 633 of these SNGs in my statistics (also includes the $1.75 18 seater). The point is that I’m only reaching the final table in 56.4% of the games, not even near the prospected 60%. Only 25,5% ITM, also way below the desired 30%.
Resulting in a loss of $0.65 over 633 games.
If we look at these stats per year:


Year
Played
Profit/Loss
ITM
ITM%
FT
FT%
2009
214
$52.1
59
27.57%
114
53.27%
2010
63
$8.55
18
28.57%
35
55.56%
2011
92
$11.58
33
35.87%
53
57.61%
2012
150
$-27.73
30
20%
67
44.67%
2013
24
$-12.28
6
25%
12
50%
2014
5
$-7.5
0
0%
2
40%
2015
76
$-35.63
13
17.11%
33
43.42%
2016
9
$10.26
3
33.33%
5
50%


Based on the early years it should be possible to make a profit, but the online poker field was completely different compared by these days. Now there are no Americans left on Stars, which apparently makes it a lot harder. But also players are better compared to the old days.

If we look at the places I’m ending I’m also getting a wake-up call.
1
35
5,53%
2
49
7,74%
3
36
5,69%
4
42
6,64%
5
41
6,48%
6
46
7,27%
7
32
5,06%
8
40
6,32%
9
36
5,69%
10
45
7,11%
11
47
7,42%
12
43
6,79%
13
35
5,53%
14
27
4,27%
15
25
3,95%
16
18
2,84%
17
21
3,32%
18
15
2,37%

I’m glad with the number of second places, but disappointed to see that in 8.5% of the games that I play, I’m not giving myself a chance by getting eliminated very early in the SNG.
This should be brought back to around 5%.

Based on weekdays I’m getting the following results:
Weekday
Played
Profit/Loss
ITM
ITM%
FT
FT%
Monday
119
$-77.03
19
15.97%
64
53.78%
Tuesday
94
$66.73
34
36.17%
50
53.19%
Wednesday
119
$-15.6
30
25.21%
70
58.82%
Thursday
118
$-16.38
29
24.58%
65
55.08%
Friday
82
$31.88
22
26.83%
44
53.66%
Saturday
57
$1.41
16
28.07%
37
64.91%
Sunday
44
$8.34
12
27.27%
27
61.36%

For some reason I should avoid playing on Monday.

Looking forward:
I have the intention to play 100 SNGs before the end of the year.
I should reach at least in 55 SNGs the final table and cash in at least 28. With the reminder to myself that a 4th place is worth nothing.
Let’s divide this 28 evenly among the paid places. So 7 wins, 7 second places, 7 third places and 7 fourth places.
This should be enough for a small profit. ($16.32)

I do have a little of a head start. Already 9 are played, with 3 cashes. One win and 2 second places.

Good Luck,
Dremeber