Monday, December 03, 2007

I'm a donk, the stats can't be wrong.

Forget all the challenges, forget the bright future. Forget getting break even this year. I'm a poker donk and probably I will stay a poker donk. A while ago I brought to you the Paedocyprisis. It is the smallest fish alive. This was around the 17th of July.

Let me put it like this. If it was swimming in the poker pool it would hunt me down and eat me.

I know that variance it part of Poker, that once in a while you face a bad beat or that you made a bad read. I can even understand that you have to bluff sometimes and that once in a while your bluff will not work and you will ran into a real monster. But if this all comes together Poker can be fucking frustrating.

I know that I'm not a Poker God, also the looks point into this direction :). But I capable of doing better than the stats I'm facing at the moment.
Played 3 SNGs today and not even close to the Money. This month I'm already down by 27$.

Notes for this donkey:
- A9 is not a good starting hand.
- Don't always think that a check of the villain means that the flop did not help him.
- If the board gives somebody a flush or straight possibility, back down cause they will get the needed cards.
- Don't count on a flush or straight cause the Poker Gods are against you at this moment.

Can anybody tell how I could/should have played this hand differently?

Maybe I should quit!

More luck at the tables than me!
Dremeber

5 reacties:

Anonymous said...

lol u big donk !!

thanks for changing my name :)

cant comment on hand, no access to pokerhand from work.

note on your notes ... they sound like notes from the mighty game of plo8 *)

chin up, it will get better.

regards

dD

Yorkshire Pudding said...

On the hand:

1st, I wouldn't raise ATo here, in fact I might not even play it at all this early in a SnG.

2nd, if you're betting this flop you've just given the villain, who could be chasing a flush draw, 3/1 odds to call. With implied odds, because you've raised pre and c-bet the flop he is being priced in to call. Bet around 180/200 into the 240 pot

3rd, on the turn you've given him 4.4/1 odds so he's rightly calling with almost anything, especially the flush draw. If you thin your Ten is good here I'd be inclined to bet at least 300/350 into the 480 pot.

4th, The river is an awful card for you and you bet 100 into a 760 pot! He only has to be correct 1 in 8 times to be profitable calling here. I check this river and fold to any bet. Very rarely at these stakes do villains raise the river on a pure bluff.

Villain played this pretty bad IMO but sometimes even bad play gets paid off.

Rob1606 said...

I have to agree with YP here. I had not noticed you raised preflop initially. Mostly you just want to fold this hand in middle position.

If you do raise, you have to raise more because a raise to 60 does not impress anyone (you will note that the limpers also called your raise). In order to really scare off some people you must raise to at least 100 in the early stages of an SNG (120 if the blinds are 15/30). Then they are much more likely to also take your later bets more seriously.

And yes, you have to check-fold the river, as hard as this can be to do. Your hand started off very nicely but became progressively worse. Top pair tens is not so strong, therefore (paradoxically) you have to bet MORE! You really do not want anyone to call here, your hand can only get worse...

Dremeber said...

Thx for the advice all.

BlaBlaBoem said...

couldn't explain it better then pudding :)

some more:
-drop AT in a s&go this early, first 2-3 levels (depends if it's turbo or not) only play AK, AQ, AA untill TT, limp with lower pairs. U can loosen up when in late position but even then it's still a low stakes s&go. People will call u much more and u mostly don't know where u stand + u wanna create a tight image for later on when u have to steal.

seems like u had 2 limpers in front of u, the raise should've been at least 80, better 100 if u really wanted to play the hand. (comment above me explained that aswell, but I didn't see it, since I typed it I let it stand now :P )

rest off hand, reread puds comments :)

but mostly, drop the AT early in a s&go